Our research group has recently proposed a strategy to simulate net forest carbon fluxes based on the coupling of a NDVI-driven parametric model, Modified C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC. The outputs of the two models are combined through the use of a proxy of ecosystem distance from equilibrium condition which accounts for the occurred disturbances. This modeling strategy is currently applied to all Italian forest areas using an available set of NDVI images and ancillary data descriptive of an 8-year period (1999–2006). The obtained estimates of forest net primary production (NPP) are first analyzed in order to assess the importance of the main model drivers on relevant spatial variability. This analysis indicates that growing stock is the most influential model driver, followed by forest type and meteorological variables. In particular, the positive influence of growing stock on NPP can be constrained by thermal and water limitations, which are most evident in the upper mountain and most southern zones, respectively. Next, the NPP estimates, aggregated over seven main forest types and twenty administrative regions in Italy, are converted into current annual increment of standing volume (CAI) by specific coefficients. The accuracy of these CAI estimates is finally assessed by comparison with the ground data collected during a recent national forest inventory. The results obtained indicate that the modeling approach tends to overestimate the ground CAI for most forest types. In particular, the overestimation is notable for forest types which are mostly managed as coppice, while it is negligible for high forests. The possible origins of these phenomena are investigated by examining the main model drivers together with the results of previous studies and of older forest inventories. The implications of using different NPP estimation methods are finally discussed in view of assessing the forest carbon budget on a national basis. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A ten-year data-set descriptive of Italian forest gross primary production (GPP) has been recently constructed by the application of Modified C-Fix, a parametric model driven by remote sensing and ancillary data. That data-set is currently being used to develop multivariate regression models which link the inter-year GPP variations of five forest types (white fir, beech, chestnut, deciduous and evergreen oaks) to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. The five models obtained, which explain from 52% to 88% of the interyear GPP variability, are then applied to predict the effects of expected environmental changes (+2 °C and increased CO<inf>2</inf> concentration). The results show a variable response of forest GPP to the simulated climate change, depending on the main ecosystem features. In contrast, the effects of increasing CO<inf>2</inf> concentration are always positive and similar to those given by a combination of the two environmental factors. These findings are analyzed with reference to previous studies on the subject, particularly concerning Mediterranean environments. The analysis confirms the plausibility of the scenarios obtained, which can cast light on the important issue of forest carbon pool variations under expected global changes. © 2009 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.