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Pubblicazioni Scientifiche
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Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures
Foest
,
Jessie J.
,
Bogdziewicz
,
Michał
,
Pesendorfer
,
Mario B.
,
Ascoli
,
Davide
,
Cutini
,
Andrea
,
Nussbaumer
,
Anita
,
Verstraeten
,
Arne
,
Beudert
,
Burkhard
,
Chianucci
,
Francesco
,
Mezzavilla
,
Francesco
,
Gratzer
,
Georg
,
Kunstler
,
Georges
,
Meesenburg
,
H.
,
Wagner
,
Markus
,
Mund
,
Martina
,
Cools
,
Nathalie
,
Vacek
,
Stanislav
,
Schmidt
,
Wolfgang
,
Vacek
,
Zdeněk Ck
,
Hacket-Pain
,
Andrew J.
Mostra abstract
Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest-forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year-to-year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan-European species. Here, we analysed 50 long-term datasets of population-level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site-specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population-level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees
Bogdziewicz
,
Michał
,
Aravena Acuña
,
Marie Claire
,
Andrus
,
Robert A.
,
Ascoli
,
Davide
,
Bergeron
,
Yves
,
Brveiller
,
Daniel
,
Boivin
,
Thomas
,
Bonal
,
Raúl
,
Caignard
,
Thomas
,
Cailleret
,
Maxime
,
Calama
,
Rafael A.
,
Calderon
,
Sergio Donoso
,
Camarero
,
Jesús Julio
,
Chang-Yang
,
Chia Hao
,
Chave
,
Jérôme
,
Chianucci
,
Francesco
,
Cleavitt
,
Natalie L.
,
Courbaud
,
Benoít
,
Cutini
,
Andrea
,
Curt
,
Thomas
,
Das
,
Adrian J.
,
Davi
,
Hendrik
,
Delpierre
,
Nicolas
,
Delzon
,
Sylvain
,
Dietze
,
Michael C.
,
Dormont
,
Laurent
,
Farfan-Rios
,
William R.
,
Gehring
,
Catherine A.
,
Gilbert
,
Gregory S.
,
Gratzer
,
Georg
,
Greenberg
,
Cathryn H.
,
Guignabert
,
Arthur
,
Guo
,
Qinfeng
,
Hacket-Pain
,
Andrew J.
,
Hampe
,
Arndt
,
Han
,
Qingmin
,
Hoshizaki
,
K.
,
Ibáñez
,
Inés
,
Johnstone
,
Jill F.
,
Journé
,
Valentin
,
Kitzberger
,
Thomas A.
,
Knops
,
Johannes Michael Hubertus
,
Kunstler
,
Georges
,
Kobe
,
Richard K.
,
Lageard
,
Jonathan G.A.
,
LaMontagne
,
Jalene M.
,
Ledwoń
,
Mateusz
,
Leininger
,
Theodor D.
,
Limousin
,
Jean Marc
,
Lutz
,
James A.
,
Macias
,
Diana S.
,
Mårell
,
Anders
,
McIntire
,
Eliot J.B.
,
Moran
,
Emily V.
,
Motta
,
Renzo
,
Myers
,
Jonathan A.
,
Nagel
,
Thomas A.
,
Naoe
,
Shoji
,
Noguchi
,
Mahoko
,
Oguro
,
Michio
,
Kurokawa
,
Hiroko
,
Ourcival
,
Jean Marc
,
Parmenter
,
Robert R.
,
Pérez-Ramos
,
Ignacio M.
,
Piechnik
,
Łukasz
,
Podgórski
,
Tomasz
,
Poulsen
,
John R.
,
Qiu
,
Tong
,
Redmond
,
Miranda D.
,
Reid
,
Chantal D.
,
Rodman
,
Kyle C.
,
Šamonil
,
Pavel
,
Holik
,
Jan
,
Scher
,
C. Lane
,
van Marle
,
Harald Schmidt
,
Seget
,
Barbara
,
Shibata
,
Mitsue
,
Sharma
,
Shubhi
,
Silman
,
Miles R.
,
Steele
,
Michael A.
,
Straub
,
Jacob N.
,
Sun
,
I. Fang
,
Sutton
,
Samantha
,
Swenson
,
Jennifer J.
,
Thomas
,
Peter A.
,
Uríarte
,
María
,
Vacchiano
,
Giorgio
,
Veblen
,
Thomas Thorstein
,
Wright
,
Boyd R.
,
Wright
,
Stuart Joseph
,
Whitham
,
Thomas G.
,
Zhu
,
Kai
,
Zimmerman
,
Jess K.
,
Żywiec
,
Magdalena
,
Clark
,
James S.
Mostra abstract
Aim: Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent dimension related to a seed size–seed number trade-off. Location: Most of the data come from Europe, North and Central America and East Asia. A minority of the data come from South America, Africa and Australia. Time period: 1960–2022. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: We gathered 12 million observations of the number of seeds produced in 784 tree species. We estimated the number of seeds produced by individual trees and scaled it up to the species level. Next, we used principal components analysis and generalized joint attribute modelling (GJAM) to map seed number and size on the tree traits spectrum. Results: Incorporating seed size and number into trait analysis while controlling for environment and phylogeny with GJAM exposes relationships in trees that might otherwise remain hidden. Production of the large total biomass of seeds [product of seed number and seed size; hereafter, species seed productivity (SSP)] is associated with high leaf area, low foliar nitrogen, low specific leaf area (SLA) and dense wood. Production of high seed numbers is associated with small seeds produced by nutrient-demanding species with softwood, small leaves and high SLA. Trait covariation is consistent with opposing strategies: one fast-growing, early successional, with high dispersal, and the other slow-growing, stress-tolerant, that recruit in shaded conditions. Main conclusions: Earth system models currently assume that reproductive allocation is indifferent among plant functional types. Easily measurable seed size is a strong predictor of the seed number and species seed productivity. The connection of SSP with the functional traits can form the first basis of improved fecundity prediction across global forests. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.